Crime Statistics – Developing a Model of Personal Safety – Part 2

Crime statistics are worthy of discussion. The greater understanding we have of the subject, the more informed we are when making decisions that may affect our personal safety. The purpose of evaluating relevant information regarding violence is not to frighten or make one paranoid. It is to raise awareness and examine prevention strategies, thereby giving people the ability to develop their own Model of Personal Safety. This process begins by defining the problem.

In Crime Statistics – Developing a Model of Personal Safety – Part 1, I presented some of the most recent available statistics in the Violent Crime Category from the 2005 National Crime Victimization Survey. I then drew conclusions from them, some of which were ridiculous. Let’s look at the real-life problem.

Violent confrontations are unexpected, unplanned and unpredictable. You can get into situations from which you cannot escape. If this were not true, there would be very few accidental deaths, car accidents, or violent crime victims.

I agree with those who feel that many problems can be avoided by simply paying attention to your environment. I also endorse the application of appropriate interpersonal communications in situations that present personal risk.

BUT…..there are still situations that evolve in which we cannot observe our way out of, talk our way out of, or escape from. Now what?

My roommate in law enforcement academy was a world-ranked karate black-belt. He was also a police officer. I had seen him compete internationally on television before I personally met him. He shared the following story with me.

As a police officer, he had arrested an individual for Driving Under The Influence. Months later, he was off-duty and grocery shopping one evening. The individual he had arrested was in the store with several friends. They began to follow him around the store, making subjective threats towards the officer. The officer thought it in his best interest to leave the store.

Once in the dimly lit parking lot, the officer was confronted by the two of the group who had been following him around the store. He did his best to avoid a confrontation, and advised them that he did not want any trouble. One of them produced a bat and began to attack him. He used his significant martial arts skills to ward off the attack, now coming from both individuals. What he did not know, or see, was a third companion of this group approaching him from behind.

The rear-side attacker hit him so hard he was knocked unconscious and fell to the ground.

This group of attackers failed to recognize a Good Samaritan who had been observing the confrontation. The Good Samaritan also happened to be a sword collector, who had several of his swords in his trunk.

The Good Samaritan quickly retrieved one of his swords and confronted the group of attackers, while he stood over the fallen officer. The officer believes this saved his life.

My brother-in-law owns an investment firm. One of his female employees, who is a senior citizen, was attacked in the same manner while Christmas shopping in broad daylight. After buying some gifts at a suburban Mall, she began to make her way to her car in the parking lot. She noticed an individual coming towards her. She was suddenly hit from behind and knocked to the ground. Her purse was taken and the assailants fled.

Here are two real-life examples you did not read about in the newspaper, in which these individuals found themselves in circumstances they could not escape from.

Below, are some arguable statistics about crime in the United States. They are arguable due to the estimated percentage of un-reported and under-reported crime. For example, it is estimated that up to 55% of sexual assaults go unreported. Additionally, these statistics change to some degree frequently.

Violence In America:
- One burglary every 11 seconds.
- One motor vehicle theft every 20 seconds.
- One aggravated assault every 28 seconds.
- One robbery every 47 seconds.
- One rape every 5 minutes.
- One murder every 22 minutes.

You might be thinking; “With almost 300 million people in the United States, what are the chances that I will be a victim of violent crime?” If you evaluate your personal safety by asking this question, you are asking the wrong question.

The appropriate question is: “If I do find myself in an unexpected, violent situation from which I cannot escape, what am I going to do?”

There is good research that comes from interviews with criminals. Below, is what some of this research reveals.

Offenders And Weapons
- 60% Carried A Weapon While Traveling.
- 50 % Carried A Weapon While Socializing.
- 63% Are Usually Armed At Work.
- 83% of juvenile detention center inmates reported owning a gun.
- 35% of juvenile detention inmates and 10% of high school students said it is “OK to shoot a person if that is what it takes to get something you want.”

The Impact Of Drugs
Statistically, we know that drug and alcohol use increase the risk of violence.

Forty nine percent of all State prison inmates reported that they were under the influence of drugs or alcohol or both at the time they committed the offense for which they were currently sentenced.

The US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Applied Studies, reports:

- In 2006, an estimated 20.4 million Americans aged 12 or older were current (past month) illicit drug users, meaning they had used an illicit drug during the month prior to the survey interview. This estimate represents 8.3 percent of the population aged 12 years old or older.

- In 2003, the estimated number of persons aged 12 or older needing treatment for an illicit drug problem was 7.3 million.

- In 2003, the estimated number of persons aged 12 or older needing treatment for an alcohol problem was 18.2 million.

From a June 2006 U.S. prison study by the bipartisan Commission on Safety and Abuse in America's Prisons: within three years of their release, 67% of former prisoners are rearrested and 52% are re-incarcerated. This recidivism rate calls into question the effectiveness of America's corrections system, which costs taxpayers $60 billion a year.

Lessons Learned
The Criminal Justice System in the United States does not work. It is broken. That, however, is a subject for another article.

Presumably, the greatest risk for personal violence comes from those who are candidates for incarceration, and there is close to an even chance they will be under the influence at the time of their offense.

In 2005, there were 5.2 million crimes of violence. With a population of approximately 300 million, your chances of being a victim of violent crime are about 1-2%.

“It will never happen to me.” I wonder how many of the 5.2 million victims of violent crime were thinking that. We know from solid research how to alter the odds in your favor should you find yourself in that 1-2% category.

Before an incident, the following are proven elements that alter the outcome.

1. Appropriate observation of the environment and behavioral clues.

2. Preparedness for unexpected violence.

3. Appropriate motor skills practice. A motor skill is the term used when referring to martial arts, defensive shooting and other self-defense techniques.

4. Tactical training. Self-defense techniques alone are not sufficient to significantly reduce personal risk in violent confrontations. They must be learned in the proper context of the realistic aspects of violence.

5. Practice technique and tactics through Simulations.

*Simulations approximate real life by posing a problematic situation requiring a trainee to decide how to respond and to apply the response correctly.

*Simulations provide opportunities to decide and act and to make mistakes.

*Simulations provide opportunities to practice applying a skill in the face of real life distractions and complications.

*Simulations will test performance in those conditions, or to find out how parts of a team or a system work together without suffering real life consequences.

*Simulations approximate real life in that they are in real environments with real people and preferably with realistic “tools”; the things the people in the Simulation might normally be carrying or have access to.

*A story is taking place. The people in the Simulation are given the pretext of the story. The role players are given specific directions as to what role they are to play.

*The trainee has choices of action.

*The trainee must make decisions, which will affect outcome.

*Someone or something’s actions are unpredictable to some degree, so the trainee is not sure what will happen. While the role players are given the whole story, the trainees are given only part of the story.

*The outcome of the Simulation depends on the combination of the events and the trainee’s reaction to them.

Unfortunately, the great majority of self-defense and martial arts programs miss the mark completely when considering these elements.

During the incident, your capabilities, based on experience and training will affect the outcome.

Once the incident commences only training and the will to survive can assist you.

Do you see the common thread here? It is appropriate training.

Having conducted considerable research into the characteristics of real-life violence, I find that most people who acknowledge these characteristics are able to begin to put them to constructive use in building a model of personal safety.

I have just described the elements that are critical in surviving the outcome of that unfortunate 1-2% category. These elements should be considered in determining how you begin to assemble your model of personal safety.

Most people begin by conducting a personal risk/needs assessment. This is best accomplished by considering your personal circumstances.

Ask questions such as:
1. What are my usual daily patterns and what environments do they expose me to?
2. Within those environments, what is the nature of reported crime?
3. What personal observations have I made in those environments?
4. Is my home safe from theft, burglary, flood and fire?
5. If someone does attempt to break into my home, do I have an alarm or a plan?
6. In the event I do find myself in a situation from which I cannot escape, what are my alternatives?
7. Do those alternatives require any special preparation, training, equipment or self-defense devices?
8. Where can I get appropriate information and training should I decide that self-defense is an appropriate part of my response?
9. What type of self-defense training should I seek?
10. Should I carry a handgun, pepper spray, impact weapons, stun device or other types of self-defense devices?

These answers should lead you to search for accurate information that once understood and acted on, will effectively alter any possible negative outcome in your favor.

In summary, be realistic about your chances of being a victim of violent crime. In doing so, determine if training is a good investment in your personal safety. Next, be selective about the training you choose to become involved with. Whoever it is should be well-versed in these principles.

© 2008 Terry Hipp

Return to AssaultPrevention